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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tepatitlán host Monarcas in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 10 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tepatitlán 1–1 Monarcas.
Going into the match, Tepatitlán had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 29. Monarcas had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tepatitlán's last 10 and 6 of Monarcas's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tepatitlán averaged 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Monarcas averaged 0.63 scored and 1.13 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Tepatitlán and 1.85 from Monarcas. From that it rates a home win at 16%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 59%, against 15%, 21% and 64% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tepatitlán (green) and Monarcas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tepatitlán | WLLLL | 0.80 | 2.90 | 40% | 70% |
| Monarcas | DLWWW | 1.70 | 1.00 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| Monarcas Win | 64% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.63 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.58 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Monarcas HT & FT | 46% | 2.10 |
| 1-2 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.