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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tepatitlán host CDS Tampico Madero in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 3 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is CDS Tampico Madero Win — CDS Tampico Madero to win. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tepatitlán 3–1 CDS Tampico Madero.
Going into the match, Tepatitlán had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 30. CDS Tampico Madero had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Tepatitlán's last 10 and 4 of CDS Tampico Madero's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tepatitlán averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 9 matches; away from home CDS Tampico Madero averaged 0.70 scored and 1.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Tepatitlán and 1.24 from CDS Tampico Madero. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 40%, against 22%, 23% and 55% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tepatitlán (green) and CDS Tampico Madero (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tepatitlán | LLLLW | 0.50 | 3.00 | 30% | 60% |
| CDS Tampico Madero | LDLWL | 1.10 | 1.60 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 May 2026 · CDS Tampico Madero 2–0 Tepatitlán
- 24 May 2026 · Tepatitlán 3–1 CDS Tampico Madero
- 17 May 2026 · Tepatitlán 1–0 CDS Tampico Madero
- 10 May 2026 · CDS Tampico Madero 0–0 Tepatitlán
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.24 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.31 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.58 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| CDS Tampico Madero Win | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.