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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Tepatitlán vs Cancún prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tepatitlán host Cancún in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 24 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Tepatitlán had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 28. Cancún had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Tepatitlán's last 10 and 6 of Cancún's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tepatitlán averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Cancún averaged 1.33 scored and 1.89 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Tepatitlán and 1.73 from Cancún. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 53%, against 22%, 24% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tepatitlán (green) and Cancún (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tepatitlán | LLDWL | 0.90 | 2.80 | 50% | 70% |
| Cancún | DDWLW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.58 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Cancún Win | 54% | 1.73 |
| Cancún HT & FT | 37% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.