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Esiliiga A · Estonia
Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tartu Welco host Tallinna Kalev in the Esiliiga A (Estonia) on 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Tartu Welco Win — Tartu Welco to win. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Tartu Welco had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 30 and conceding 11. Tallinna Kalev had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Tartu Welco's last 10 and 7 of Tallinna Kalev's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tartu Welco averaged 3.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Tallinna Kalev averaged 2.23 scored and 1.92 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.66 goals from Tartu Welco and 1.58 from Tallinna Kalev. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 21%, against 64%, 19% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tartu Welco (green) and Tallinna Kalev (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Welco | WWWWW | 3.00 | 1.10 | 50% | 70% |
| Tallinna Kalev | LLLDL | 1.30 | 2.00 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 5 Sep 2026 · Tallinna Kalev 1–1 Tartu Welco
- 9 May 2026 · Tallinna Kalev 2–0 Tartu Welco
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 1.35 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 67% | 1.39 |
| Tartu Welco Win | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Tartu Welco HT & FT | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.