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Esiliiga A · Estonia
Tartu Welco vs Elva prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tartu Welco host Elva in the Esiliiga A (Estonia) on 9 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Tartu Welco Win — Tartu Welco to win. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tartu Welco 4–0 Elva.
Going into the match, Tartu Welco had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 11. Elva had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Tartu Welco's last 10 and 3 of Elva's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tartu Welco averaged 2.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Elva averaged 2.13 scored and 1.47 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.05 goals from Tartu Welco and 1.17 from Elva. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 20%, against 57%, 22% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tartu Welco (green) and Elva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Welco | WWDDL | 2.60 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
| Elva | WDWLW | 1.20 | 1.00 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · Elva 2–1 Tartu Welco
- 1 Jun 2026 · Elva 0–2 Tartu Welco
- 27 Apr 2026 · Tartu Welco 3–3 Elva
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 1.36 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 67% | 1.39 |
| Tartu Welco Win | 56% | 1.62 |
| Tartu Welco HT & FT | 39% | 2.40 |
| 2-1 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.