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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tapatío host Tepatitlán in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 13 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tapatío 4–1 Tepatitlán.
Going into the match, Tapatío had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 19. Tepatitlán had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 29 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Tapatío's last 10 and 5 of Tepatitlán's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tapatío averaged 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Tepatitlán averaged 0.33 scored and 2.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.94 goals from Tapatío and 0.93 from Tepatitlán. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 8%, against 58%, 22% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tapatío (green) and Tepatitlán (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapatío | LLWLL | 1.90 | 1.90 | 70% | 70% |
| Tepatitlán | DWLLL | 0.90 | 2.90 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.50 |
| Tapatío Win | 59% | 1.55 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.68 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Tapatío HT & FT | 39% | 2.38 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.