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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Tapatío vs CA La Paz prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tapatío host CA La Paz in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 9 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tapatío 2–4 CA La Paz.
Going into the match, Tapatío had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 15. CA La Paz had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Tapatío's last 10 and 6 of CA La Paz's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tapatío averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home CA La Paz averaged 2.13 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.84 goals from Tapatío and 2.05 from CA La Paz. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 43%, against 37%, 25% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tapatío (green) and CA La Paz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 70% | 1.31 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.37 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.68 |
| Tapatío Win | 37% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.