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Primera Premier · Mexico
Tapachula vs Deportiva Venados prediction and preview
20 Oct 2026, 02:05 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tapachula host Deportiva Venados in the Primera Premier (Mexico) on 20 Oct 2026, 02:05 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Deportiva Venados Win — Deportiva Venados to win. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tapachula 1–4 Deportiva Venados.
Going into the match, Tapachula had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 9 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 18. Deportiva Venados had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tapachula's last 9 and 8 of Deportiva Venados's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tapachula averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Deportiva Venados averaged 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Tapachula and 2.74 from Deportiva Venados. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 65%, against 19%, 21% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tapachula (green) and Deportiva Venados (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapachula | LLLWL | 1.22 | 2.00 | 44% | 56% |
| Deportiva Venados | LLDDW | 1.70 | 1.70 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Deportiva Venados Win | 61% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.63 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
| Deportiva Venados HT & FT | 35% | 2.62 |
| 0-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.