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Primera Premier · Mexico
Tapachula vs Chapulineros prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tapachula host Chapulineros in the Primera Premier (Mexico) on 3 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.56, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tapachula 2–3 Chapulineros.
Going into the match, Tapachula had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 7 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 13. Chapulineros had won 0, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 6, with 4 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Tapachula's last 7 and 4 of Chapulineros's last 6; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tapachula averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Chapulineros averaged 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from Tapachula and 1.85 from Chapulineros. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 47%, against 45%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tapachula (green) and Chapulineros (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapachula | LWLLD | 1.14 | 1.86 | 29% | 43% |
| Chapulineros | LDDLL | 0.67 | 1.83 | 67% | 33% |
Averages over each side's last 7 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.54 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Tapachula Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.