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National League Cup · England
Tamworth vs Leeds United U21 prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tamworth host Leeds United U21 in the National League Cup (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Tamworth to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tamworth 1–0 Leeds United U21.
Going into the match, Tamworth had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 22. Leeds United U21 had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Tamworth's last 10 and 7 of Leeds United U21's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tamworth averaged 2.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Leeds United U21 averaged 2.00 scored and 2.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.57 goals from Tamworth and 2.04 from Leeds United U21. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 31%, against 47%, 24% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tamworth (green) and Leeds United U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | WWLWL | 1.60 | 2.20 | 80% | 80% |
| Leeds United U21 | WWDWL | 2.20 | 2.30 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 1.33 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 68% | 1.35 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.83 |
| Tamworth Win | 47% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 34% | 2.75 |
| Tamworth HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.