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USL Super League · USA
Tampa Bay Sun W vs Lexington W prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tampa Bay Sun W host Lexington W in the USL Super League (USA) on 4 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Lexington W to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tampa Bay Sun W 1–1 Lexington W.
Going into the match, Tampa Bay Sun W had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 17. Lexington W had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Tampa Bay Sun W's last 10 and 3 of Lexington W's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tampa Bay Sun W averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Lexington W averaged 0.75 scored and 0.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.06 goals from Tampa Bay Sun W and 1.31 from Lexington W. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 41%, against 35%, 26% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tampa Bay Sun W (green) and Lexington W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Sun W | DWWLD | 1.10 | 1.70 | 70% | 60% |
| Lexington W | WWLLW | 1.50 | 0.50 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Lexington W 1–0 Tampa Bay Sun W
- 19 Apr 2026 · Lexington W 4–0 Tampa Bay Sun W