Home › League stats › USL Championship › Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC
USL Championship · USA
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tampa Bay Rowdies host Miami FC in the USL Championship (USA) on 3 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Tampa Bay Rowdies Win — Tampa Bay Rowdies to win. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–2 Miami FC.
Going into the match, Tampa Bay Rowdies had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 8. Miami FC had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Tampa Bay Rowdies's last 10 and 7 of Miami FC's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tampa Bay Rowdies averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Miami FC averaged 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.17 goals from Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.93 from Miami FC. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 14%, against 66%, 22% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tampa Bay Rowdies (green) and Miami FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | DWLWD | 1.70 | 0.80 | 20% | 40% |
| Miami FC | WWWDD | 1.50 | 1.70 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Jul 2026 · Miami FC 2–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies
- 17 May 2026 · Miami FC 1–4 Tampa Bay Rowdies
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies Win | 66% | 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 60% | 1.56 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies HT & FT | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.