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Esiliiga B · Estonia
Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tallinna Kalev II host Parnu JK Vaprus U21 in the Esiliiga B (Estonia) on 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Parnu JK Vaprus U21 to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tallinna Kalev II 1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21.
Going into the match, Tallinna Kalev II had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 22. Parnu JK Vaprus U21 had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 38 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Tallinna Kalev II's last 10 and 5 of Parnu JK Vaprus U21's last 10; 8 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tallinna Kalev II averaged 2.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Parnu JK Vaprus U21 averaged 2.71 scored and 2.43 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.39 goals from Tallinna Kalev II and 2.77 from Parnu JK Vaprus U21. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 47%, against 39%, 20% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tallinna Kalev II (green) and Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallinna Kalev II | WLLWL | 2.10 | 2.20 | 90% | 80% |
| Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | WLLWW | 3.80 | 1.60 | 50% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 Sep 2026 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 7–0 Tallinna Kalev II
- 19 Jun 2026 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–2 Tallinna Kalev II
- 28 Apr 2026 · Tallinna Kalev II 2–3 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Double Chance X2 | 62% | 1.50 |
| Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Tallinna Kalev II HT & FT | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.