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League Two · England
Swindon Town vs Crewe prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Swindon Town host Crewe in the League Two (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Swindon Town 0–1 Crewe.
Going into the match, Swindon Town had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 17. Crewe had won 2, drawn 7 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Swindon Town's last 10 and 9 of Crewe's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Swindon Town averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Crewe averaged 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Swindon Town and 1.27 from Crewe. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 38%, against 36%, 27% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Swindon Town (green) and Crewe (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | LDLLL | 1.00 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Crewe | DWDWD | 1.70 | 1.30 | 90% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.