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Sutherland Sharks vs South Melbourne prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sutherland Sharks host South Melbourne in the Australian Championship (Australia) on 17 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sutherland Sharks 0–1 South Melbourne.
Going into the match, Sutherland Sharks had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 13. South Melbourne had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Sutherland Sharks's last 10 and 6 of South Melbourne's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sutherland Sharks averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home South Melbourne averaged 2.08 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.39 goals from Sutherland Sharks and 1.44 from South Melbourne. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 38%, against 24%, 26% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutherland Sharks | DLWLD | 1.50 | 1.30 | 90% | 60% |
| South Melbourne | DWLWL | 1.70 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Sutherland Sharks form and statistics
- South Melbourne form and statistics
- Australian Championship statistics
Other Australian Championship matches that day
- Bayswater City vs Marconi Stallions · 17 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC · Australian Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 3–1 - Broadmeadow Magic vs Wests APIA · 17 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · Australian Championship
Published pick: Wests APIA Win @ 1.40