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Virsliga · Latvia
Super Nova vs Grobiņa prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Super Nova host Grobiņa in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Super Nova 2–1 Grobiņa.
Going into the match, Super Nova had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Grobiņa had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Super Nova's last 10 and 5 of Grobiņa's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Super Nova averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Grobiņa averaged 0.60 scored and 2.27 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.30 goals from Super Nova and 0.69 from Grobiņa. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 19%, against 39%, 28% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Super Nova (green) and Grobiņa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | LLWWD | 0.80 | 0.70 | 30% | 20% |
| Grobiņa | DDLWL | 0.80 | 2.10 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Jul 2026 · Super Nova 2–0 Grobiņa
- 20 May 2026 · Grobiņa 0–2 Super Nova
- 9 Apr 2026 · Grobiņa 0–1 Super Nova
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Super Nova Win | 39% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.