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Premier League · England
Sunderland vs Brighton prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sunderland host Brighton in the Premier League (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sunderland 0–2 Brighton.
Going into the match, Sunderland had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Brighton had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 27 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sunderland's last 10 and 3 of Brighton's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sunderland averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Brighton averaged 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.90 goals from Sunderland and 1.52 from Brighton. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 50%, against 32%, 27% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sunderland (green) and Brighton (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | LWLWD | 1.30 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
| Brighton | WWWDL | 2.70 | 0.70 | 30% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.