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Premyer Liqa · Azerbaijan
Sumqayıt vs Qabala prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sumqayıt host Qabala in the Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) on 10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sumqayıt 4–1 Qabala.
Going into the match, Sumqayıt had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 17. Qabala had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Sumqayıt's last 10 and 4 of Qabala's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sumqayıt averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Qabala averaged 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.00 goals from Sumqayıt and 0.96 from Qabala. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 17%, against 38%, 30% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Sumqayıt 1–0 Qabala
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.