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A Lyga · Lithuania
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction and preview
19 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Suduva Marijampole host Kauno Žalgiris in the A Lyga (Lithuania) on 19 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris.
Going into the match, Suduva Marijampole had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 17. Kauno Žalgiris had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Suduva Marijampole's last 10 and 2 of Kauno Žalgiris's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Suduva Marijampole averaged 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Kauno Žalgiris averaged 1.45 scored and 1.20 conceded across 20.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.07 goals from Suduva Marijampole and 1.37 from Kauno Žalgiris. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 42%, against 24%, 28% and 49% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Suduva Marijampole (green) and Kauno Žalgiris (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | LLDDL | 1.30 | 1.70 | 40% | 60% |
| Kauno Žalgiris | LWWLW | 2.00 | 0.80 | 20% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Sep 2026 · Kauno Žalgiris 5–1 Suduva Marijampole
- 23 May 2026 · Suduva Marijampole 2–1 Kauno Žalgiris
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.63 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.73 |
| Kauno Žalgiris Win | 48% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.