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Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
Subiza vs Bidezarra prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Subiza host Bidezarra in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Subiza Win — Subiza to win. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Subiza 2–1 Bidezarra.
Going into the match, Subiza had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 18. Bidezarra had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Subiza's last 10 and 5 of Bidezarra's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Subiza averaged 3.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Bidezarra averaged 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.41 goals from Subiza and 0.99 from Bidezarra. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 13%, against 59%, 22% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Subiza (green) and Bidezarra (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| Subiza Win | 55% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.90 |
| Subiza HT & FT | 40% | 2.30 |
| 1-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.