Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 65%Final score 6–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Sturm Graz host Grazer AK in the Bundesliga (Austria) on 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK.

Going into the match, Sturm Graz had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Grazer AK had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 17 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Sturm Graz's last 10 and 4 of Grazer AK's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sturm Graz averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Grazer AK averaged 1.55 scored and 1.64 conceded across 11.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.43 goals from Sturm Graz and 0.84 from Grazer AK. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 10%, against 51%, 26% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Sturm Graz (green) and Grazer AK (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form54% – 46%

Attack60% – 40%

Defence33% – 67%

Head-to-head100% – 0%

Goals71% – 29%

Overall strength61% – 38%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Sturm Graz	LWWLD	1.40	1.30	50%	60%
Grazer AK	DWDWW	1.30	1.70	40%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	78%	1.20
Double Chance 1X	77%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	65%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
BTTS Yes	58%	1.62
Over 2.5 Goals	56%	1.70
Sturm Graz Win	52%	1.83

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.