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Championship · England
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Stoke City host Middlesbrough in the Championship (England) on 13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough.
Going into the match, Stoke City had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 14. Middlesbrough had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Stoke City's last 10 and 7 of Middlesbrough's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Stoke City averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Middlesbrough averaged 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Stoke City and 1.37 from Middlesbrough. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 33%, against 26%, 27% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Stoke City (green) and Middlesbrough (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | WWWDW | 1.60 | 1.40 | 80% | 70% |
| Middlesbrough | WDDWL | 1.80 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.