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I Liga · Poland
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Stal Mielec host Warta Poznań in the I Liga (Poland) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Stal Mielec 2–1 Warta Poznań.
Going into the match, Stal Mielec had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 25. Warta Poznań had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Stal Mielec's last 10 and 5 of Warta Poznań's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Stal Mielec averaged 2.07 goals scored and 2.14 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Warta Poznań averaged 1.73 scored and 1.53 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.63 goals from Stal Mielec and 2.19 from Warta Poznań. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 50%, against 34%, 26% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Stal Mielec (green) and Warta Poznań (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec | LLDDL | 1.60 | 2.50 | 80% | 70% |
| Warta Poznań | WWWLL | 1.70 | 1.10 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.