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Challenge League · Switzerland
Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Stade Nyonnais host FC Aarau in the Challenge League (Switzerland) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Stade Nyonnais 2–1 FC Aarau.
Going into the match, Stade Nyonnais had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 24. FC Aarau had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Stade Nyonnais's last 10 and 10 of FC Aarau's last 10; 8 and 10 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Stade Nyonnais averaged 0.86 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home FC Aarau averaged 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Stade Nyonnais and 1.86 from FC Aarau. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 53%, against 17%, 21% and 62% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Stade Nyonnais (green) and FC Aarau (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais | LLLDL | 0.90 | 2.40 | 60% | 80% |
| FC Aarau | LLLDW | 1.70 | 2.00 | 100% | 100% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Aug 2026 · FC Aarau 2–1 Stade Nyonnais
- 8 May 2026 · FC Aarau 5–1 Stade Nyonnais
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| FC Aarau Win | 63% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.