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NPFL · Nigeria
Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sporting Lagos host Bendel Insurance in the NPFL (Nigeria) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sporting Lagos 2–1 Bendel Insurance.
Going into the match, Sporting Lagos had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 7 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Bendel Insurance had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Sporting Lagos's last 7 and 8 of Bendel Insurance's last 10; 2 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sporting Lagos averaged 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Bendel Insurance averaged 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.29 goals from Sporting Lagos and 1.15 from Bendel Insurance. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 17%, against 53%, 28% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 33%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sporting Lagos (green) and Bendel Insurance (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lagos | DDDWL | 1.14 | 1.14 | 43% | 29% |
| Bendel Insurance | WLWLW | 2.00 | 1.60 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.65 |
| Sporting Lagos Win | 53% | 1.70 |
| Sporting Lagos HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.