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Segunda División · Spain
Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sporting Gijon host Celta de Vigo II in the Segunda División (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sporting Gijon 3–2 Celta de Vigo II.
Going into the match, Sporting Gijon had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Celta de Vigo II had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Sporting Gijon's last 10 and 5 of Celta de Vigo II's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sporting Gijon averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Celta de Vigo II averaged 1.45 scored and 0.73 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.68 goals from Sporting Gijon and 1.29 from Celta de Vigo II. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 28%, against 60%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sporting Gijon (green) and Celta de Vigo II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijon | LWLLW | 1.30 | 1.40 | 30% | 40% |
| Celta de Vigo II | DLLWL | 1.40 | 1.30 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Sporting Gijon Win | 60% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.