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Regionalliga - West · Germany
Sportfreunde Lotte vs Paderborn II prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sportfreunde Lotte host Paderborn II in the Regionalliga - West (Germany) on 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sportfreunde Lotte 1–0 Paderborn II.
Going into the match, Sportfreunde Lotte had won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 21. Paderborn II had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sportfreunde Lotte's last 10 and 8 of Paderborn II's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sportfreunde Lotte averaged 0.58 goals scored and 2.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Paderborn II averaged 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.85 goals from Sportfreunde Lotte and 1.77 from Paderborn II. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 58%, against 22%, 23% and 56% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sportfreunde Lotte (green) and Paderborn II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportfreunde Lotte | LLLLL | 0.70 | 2.10 | 40% | 60% |
| Paderborn II | LWDLW | 1.60 | 2.00 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.49 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Paderborn II Win | 55% | 1.65 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 42% | 2.23 |
| Paderborn II HT & FT | 40% | 2.34 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.