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Serie B · Brazil
Sport Recife vs São Bernardo prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sport Recife host São Bernardo in the Serie B (Brazil) on 6 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sport Recife 2–1 São Bernardo.
Going into the match, Sport Recife had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 14. São Bernardo had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Sport Recife's last 10 and 5 of São Bernardo's last 10; 9 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sport Recife averaged 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 18 matches; away from home São Bernardo averaged 1.53 scored and 1.00 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Sport Recife and 1.08 from São Bernardo. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 27%, against 51%, 26% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sport Recife (green) and São Bernardo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | WLWLW | 1.60 | 1.40 | 80% | 90% |
| São Bernardo | WDWWL | 1.20 | 0.80 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 14 Jun 2026 · São Bernardo 0–0 Sport Recife
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Sport Recife Win | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.