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Primera División · Peru
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sport Boys host Alianza Atletico in the Primera División (Peru) on 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sport Boys 1–3 Alianza Atletico.
Going into the match, Sport Boys had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 16. Alianza Atletico had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Sport Boys's last 10 and 8 of Alianza Atletico's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sport Boys averaged 1.54 goals scored and 0.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Alianza Atletico averaged 1.44 scored and 1.63 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Sport Boys and 1.46 from Alianza Atletico. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 36%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sport Boys (green) and Alianza Atletico (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | LLDWL | 1.50 | 1.60 | 70% | 50% |
| Alianza Atletico | WWWLW | 2.40 | 1.20 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 Oct 2026 · Alianza Atletico 3–0 Sport Boys
- 27 Sep 2026 · Sport Boys 2–5 Alianza Atletico
- 19 Apr 2026 · Alianza Atletico 0–1 Sport Boys
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.