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FA Cup · England
Spennymoor Town vs Chester prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Spennymoor Town host Chester in the FA Cup (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Spennymoor Town 4–1 Chester.
Going into the match, Spennymoor Town had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 20. Chester had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Spennymoor Town's last 10 and 5 of Chester's last 10; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Spennymoor Town averaged 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Chester averaged 1.46 scored and 0.92 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Spennymoor Town and 1.63 from Chester. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 44%, against 33%, 29% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Spennymoor Town (green) and Chester (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spennymoor Town | DWDLL | 1.40 | 2.00 | 80% | 80% |
| Chester | WWLLD | 1.30 | 0.90 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.61 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Chester Win | 38% | 2.35 |
| 0-1 | 9% | 10.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.