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III Liga - Group 3 · Poland
Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sparta Katowice host Warta Gorzów in the III Liga - Group 3 (Poland) on 3 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Sparta Katowice Win — Sparta Katowice to win. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sparta Katowice 1–1 Warta Gorzów.
Going into the match, Sparta Katowice had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 6. Warta Gorzów had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sparta Katowice's last 10 and 6 of Warta Gorzów's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sparta Katowice averaged 2.27 goals scored and 0.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Warta Gorzów averaged 0.83 scored and 2.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.09 goals from Sparta Katowice and 0.42 from Warta Gorzów. From that it rates a home win at 76%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 6%, against 60%, 22% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sparta Katowice (green) and Warta Gorzów (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Katowice | WWDWW | 1.80 | 0.60 | 50% | 50% |
| Warta Gorzów | DLWDL | 1.00 | 1.60 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.55 |
| Sparta Katowice Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Sparta Katowice HT & FT | 41% | 2.26 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.