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FA Cup · England
Spalding United vs Bury Town prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Spalding United host Bury Town in the FA Cup (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Spalding United to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Spalding United 4–0 Bury Town.
Going into the match, Spalding United had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 8. Bury Town had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Spalding United's last 10 and 7 of Bury Town's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Spalding United averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Bury Town averaged 2.50 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.05 goals from Spalding United and 1.20 from Bury Town. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 21%, against 54%, 22% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Spalding United (green) and Bury Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spalding United | DLWWW | 1.50 | 0.80 | 60% | 40% |
| Bury Town | DWLWW | 2.30 | 1.70 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 Oct 2026 · Bury Town 1–1 Spalding United
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.27 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 62% | 1.48 |
| Spalding United Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.72 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.