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National League · England
Southend vs AFC Fylde prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Southend host AFC Fylde in the National League (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Southend 3–1 AFC Fylde.
Going into the match, Southend had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 16. AFC Fylde had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Southend's last 10 and 7 of AFC Fylde's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Southend averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 13 matches; away from home AFC Fylde averaged 2.08 scored and 1.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.91 goals from Southend and 1.43 from AFC Fylde. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 28%, against 46%, 24% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Southend (green) and AFC Fylde (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.48 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Southend Win | 46% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.