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Southampton vs Portsmouth prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Southampton host Portsmouth in the Championship (England) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth.
Going into the match, Southampton had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 14. Portsmouth had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Southampton's last 10 and 6 of Portsmouth's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Southampton averaged 2.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Portsmouth averaged 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.67 goals from Southampton and 0.75 from Portsmouth. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 16%, against 60%, 23% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Southampton (green) and Portsmouth (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | LWWDD | 2.20 | 1.40 | 90% | 70% |
| Portsmouth | DDWLL | 1.10 | 1.40 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Southampton Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.