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South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 08:35 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
South Melbourne host Melbourne Victory in the Australia Cup (Australia) on 10 Oct 2026, 08:35 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory.
Going into the match, South Melbourne had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Melbourne Victory had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 9, with 13 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of South Melbourne's last 10 and 3 of Melbourne Victory's last 9; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home South Melbourne averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 21 matches; away from home Melbourne Victory averaged 1.57 scored and 0.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.65 goals from South Melbourne and 1.41 from Melbourne Victory. From that it rates a home win at 16%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 54%, against 21%, 25% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between South Melbourne (green) and Melbourne Victory (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Melbourne | WLWLW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 70% | 80% |
| Melbourne Victory | DWDDW | 1.44 | 0.67 | 33% | 33% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.