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Serie C - Girone C · Italy
Sorrento vs Casarano prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sorrento host Casarano in the Serie C - Girone C (Italy) on 3 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sorrento 2–0 Casarano.
Going into the match, Sorrento had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Casarano had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Sorrento's last 10 and 4 of Casarano's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sorrento averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Casarano averaged 1.80 scored and 0.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Sorrento and 0.87 from Casarano. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 23%, against 40%, 28% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sorrento (green) and Casarano (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 51% | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.