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V.League 1 · Vietnam
Song Lam Nghe An vs Ho Chi Minh prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Song Lam Nghe An host Ho Chi Minh in the V.League 1 (Vietnam) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Song Lam Nghe An 1–1 Ho Chi Minh.
Going into the match, Song Lam Nghe An had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 17. Ho Chi Minh had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Song Lam Nghe An's last 10 and 5 of Ho Chi Minh's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Song Lam Nghe An averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Ho Chi Minh averaged 1.11 scored and 1.39 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from Song Lam Nghe An and 1.14 from Ho Chi Minh. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 33%, against 39%, 28% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Song Lam Nghe An (green) and Ho Chi Minh (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song Lam Nghe An | WWWLL | 1.30 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Ho Chi Minh | DLDWL | 1.00 | 1.30 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · Ho Chi Minh 3–1 Song Lam Nghe An
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.