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Premier League · Egypt
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Smouha SC host Ghazl El Mehalla in the Premier League (Egypt) on 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Smouha SC to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Smouha SC 1–0 Ghazl El Mehalla.
Going into the match, Smouha SC had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 12. Ghazl El Mehalla had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Smouha SC's last 10 and 4 of Ghazl El Mehalla's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Smouha SC averaged 0.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Ghazl El Mehalla averaged 1.00 scored and 1.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from Smouha SC and 0.62 from Ghazl El Mehalla. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 39% and an away win at 24%, against 42%, 33% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Smouha SC (green) and Ghazl El Mehalla (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smouha SC | WLLDL | 0.30 | 1.20 | 20% | 20% |
| Ghazl El Mehalla | DLLDL | 0.90 | 1.50 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS No | 65% | 1.40 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Smouha SC Win | 42% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.70 |
| 0-0 | 21% | 4.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.