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1. Liga · Latvia
Smiltene vs Tukums II prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Smiltene host Tukums II in the 1. Liga (Latvia) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.42, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Smiltene 3–2 Tukums II.
Going into the match, Smiltene had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 26. Tukums II had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 31 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Smiltene's last 10 and 4 of Tukums II's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Smiltene averaged 1.40 goals scored and 2.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Tukums II averaged 1.22 scored and 4.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.88 goals from Smiltene and 1.58 from Tukums II. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 19%, against 45%, 24% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Smiltene (green) and Tukums II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 May 2026 · Tukums II 1–1 Smiltene
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 69% | 1.35 |
| Double Chance 1X | 68% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.75 |
| Smiltene Win | 44% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 35% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.