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First League · Macedonia
Skopje vs Vardar Skopje prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Skopje host Vardar Skopje in the First League (Macedonia) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.75, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Skopje 1–2 Vardar Skopje.
Going into the match, Skopje had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Vardar Skopje had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Skopje's last 10 and 4 of Vardar Skopje's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Skopje averaged 2.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Vardar Skopje averaged 2.25 scored and 0.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.77 goals from Skopje and 1.52 from Vardar Skopje. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 54%, against 11%, 19% and 70% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Skopje (green) and Vardar Skopje (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skopje | LLWLD | 0.60 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
| Vardar Skopje | WDWWD | 2.10 | 0.90 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.54 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.75 |
| Vardar Skopje HT & FT | 45% | 2.05 |
| 0-3 | 10% | 9.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.