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J2 League · Japan
Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Shonan Bellmare host Albirex Niigata in the J2 League (Japan) on 11 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Albirex Niigata.
Going into the match, Shonan Bellmare had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 15. Albirex Niigata had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Shonan Bellmare's last 10 and 5 of Albirex Niigata's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Shonan Bellmare averaged 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Albirex Niigata averaged 1.00 scored and 1.89 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Shonan Bellmare and 1.04 from Albirex Niigata. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 24%, against 42%, 29% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Shonan Bellmare (green) and Albirex Niigata (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonan Bellmare | LDWDW | 1.20 | 1.50 | 60% | 50% |
| Albirex Niigata | WLDWW | 1.30 | 1.70 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Shonan Bellmare Win | 41% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.