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Emperor Cup · Japan
Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Shimizu S-pulse host V-varen Nagasaki in the Emperor Cup (Japan) on 7 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki.
Going into the match, Shimizu S-pulse had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 9. V-varen Nagasaki had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Shimizu S-pulse's last 10 and 5 of V-varen Nagasaki's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Shimizu S-pulse averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home V-varen Nagasaki averaged 0.92 scored and 1.85 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.76 goals from Shimizu S-pulse and 0.96 from V-varen Nagasaki. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 19%, against 43%, 27% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Shimizu S-pulse (green) and V-varen Nagasaki (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | WWWLD | 0.90 | 0.90 | 40% | 20% |
| V-varen Nagasaki | LDWWL | 1.20 | 1.80 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Apr 2026 · Shimizu S-pulse 1–2 V-varen Nagasaki
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.