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League Cup · Hong Kong
Shatin vs Hong Kong FC prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Shatin host Hong Kong FC in the League Cup (Hong Kong) on 1 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Hong Kong FC to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Shatin 2–2 Hong Kong FC.
Going into the match, Shatin had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Hong Kong FC had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 9, with 11 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Shatin's last 5 and 7 of Hong Kong FC's last 9; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Shatin averaged 0.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Hong Kong FC averaged 1.33 scored and 2.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.81 goals from Shatin and 1.61 from Hong Kong FC. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 34%, against 43%, 23% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Shatin (green) and Hong Kong FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shatin | LLLLW | 1.00 | 2.60 | 40% | 80% |
| Hong Kong FC | LWLLD | 1.22 | 2.56 | 78% | 89% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.24 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Double Chance 1X | 65% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Hong Kong FC Win | 35% | 2.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.