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UEFA Champions League · International
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Shakhtar Donetsk host AEK Athens FC in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 14 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens FC.
Going into the match, Shakhtar Donetsk had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 4. AEK Athens FC had won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 31 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 and 4 of AEK Athens FC's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Shakhtar Donetsk averaged 1.91 goals scored and 0.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home AEK Athens FC averaged 1.17 scored and 0.92 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.72 goals from Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.96 from AEK Athens FC. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 20%, against 36%, 27% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Shakhtar Donetsk (green) and AEK Athens FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | WWWWW | 2.00 | 0.40 | 20% | 50% |
| AEK Athens FC | WWWDW | 3.10 | 0.40 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.