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Sevilla vs Aston Villa prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sevilla host Aston Villa in the Friendlies Clubs (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Sevilla to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sevilla 1–3 Aston Villa.
Going into the match, Sevilla had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Aston Villa had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Sevilla's last 10 and 7 of Aston Villa's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sevilla averaged 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Aston Villa averaged 1.78 scored and 1.39 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Sevilla and 2.18 from Aston Villa. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 60%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sevilla (green) and Aston Villa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | LWWDL | 1.40 | 1.20 | 70% | 60% |
| Aston Villa | WWLWD | 1.30 | 1.80 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.