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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Sevilla Atletico vs Badajoz prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sevilla Atletico host Badajoz in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sevilla Atletico 2–2 Badajoz.
Going into the match, Sevilla Atletico had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Badajoz had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sevilla Atletico's last 10 and 4 of Badajoz's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sevilla Atletico averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Badajoz averaged 1.71 scored and 0.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.92 goals from Sevilla Atletico and 1.49 from Badajoz. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 49%, against 45%, 27% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sevilla Atletico (green) and Badajoz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla Atletico | LDWWD | 1.10 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
| Badajoz | DLWWD | 1.10 | 0.60 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Sevilla Atletico Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Sevilla Atletico HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.