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Coppa Italia Serie D · Italy
Sestri Levante vs Pistoiese prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sestri Levante host Pistoiese in the Coppa Italia Serie D (Italy) on 7 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Pistoiese Win — Pistoiese to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sestri Levante 1–0 Pistoiese.
Going into the match, Sestri Levante had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Pistoiese had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sestri Levante's last 10 and 3 of Pistoiese's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sestri Levante averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Pistoiese averaged 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.50 goals from Sestri Levante and 1.88 from Pistoiese. From that it rates a home win at 8%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 70%, against 19%, 24% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestri Levante | WLDLL | 1.10 | 1.30 | 50% | 40% |
| Pistoiese | WWWWW | 2.40 | 0.30 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.37 |
| Pistoiese Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Pistoiese HT & FT | 39% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.