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Serie D - Girone A · Italy
Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sestri Levante host Celle Varazze in the Serie D - Girone A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Sestri Levante Win — Sestri Levante to win. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sestri Levante 1–1 Celle Varazze.
Going into the match, Sestri Levante had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Celle Varazze had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sestri Levante's last 10 and 1 of Celle Varazze's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sestri Levante averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Celle Varazze averaged 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Sestri Levante and 0.50 from Celle Varazze. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 12%, against 56%, 26% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sestri Levante (green) and Celle Varazze (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestri Levante | WWLDL | 1.20 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
| Celle Varazze | LLLLL | 0.60 | 1.30 | 10% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Apr 2026 · Celle Varazze 1–0 Sestri Levante
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.38 |
| Sestri Levante Win | 55% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Sestri Levante HT & FT | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.