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Copa Federacion · Spain
Sestao River vs Salamanca UDS prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sestao River host Salamanca UDS in the Copa Federacion (Spain) on 14 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 2.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 42% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sestao River 3–1 Salamanca UDS.
Going into the match, Sestao River had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Salamanca UDS had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sestao River's last 10 and 6 of Salamanca UDS's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sestao River averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Salamanca UDS averaged 1.22 scored and 2.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.89 goals from Sestao River and 0.91 from Salamanca UDS. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 17%, against 53%, 28% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sestao River (green) and Salamanca UDS (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestao River | DWWWL | 1.50 | 0.60 | 40% | 30% |
| Salamanca UDS | WLWWL | 1.80 | 1.50 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.42 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.69 |
| Sestao River Win | 51% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.30 |
| Sestao River HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.