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First League · Bulgaria
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Septemvri Sofia host Dunav Ruse in the First League (Bulgaria) on 11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Dunav Ruse.
Going into the match, Septemvri Sofia had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 18. Dunav Ruse had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Septemvri Sofia's last 10 and 7 of Dunav Ruse's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Septemvri Sofia averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Dunav Ruse averaged 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Septemvri Sofia and 1.08 from Dunav Ruse. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 26%, against 42%, 29% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Septemvri Sofia (green) and Dunav Ruse (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | LLLDW | 0.80 | 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
| Dunav Ruse | DLDLL | 1.00 | 1.70 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Septemvri Sofia Win | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.